Devil is in details
The Canadian Press - Aug 10, 2018 - Business Buzz

Photo: The Canadian Press

OTTAWA — The economy generated 54,100 net new jobs last month and saw its unemployment rate fall, but the headline improvements overshadowed weaker details: a rush of new part-time, public sector positions and a drop in full-time work.

The overall July increase in jobs pushed the unemployment rate back to its four-decade low of 5.8 per cent, down from six per cent the previous month, Statistics Canada’s latest labour force survey said Friday.

But a closer look at the numbers revealed that the country gained 82,000 less desirable, part-time positions last month, and it lost 28,000 full-time jobs. The public sector made the biggest contribution to the July increase with 49,600 new jobs, while the private sector added 5,200 positions.

Average hourly wage growth, which is scrutinized by the Bank of Canada, continued its gradual cool-off last month with a year-over-year reading of 3.2 per cent. In June, it expanded 3.6 per cent and in May the figure was 3.9 per cent, which marked a nine-year high.

The total number of hours worked in July expanded 1.3 per cent, a slightly slower pace than the June reading of 1.4 per cent.

“In the wacky world of Canada’s monthly employment numbers, July came up with another head-scratcher, with some big headlines but some disappointments in the fine print,” CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld wrote Friday in a research note to clients.

Shenfeld added that there are “lots of reasons to question just how good the data really are here.”

But overall he said the report contained a “good” set of numbers that will keep markets guessing whether the Bank of Canada will introduce its next interest rate hike in September or October. CIBC predicts the next rate increase will land in October as the central bank continues to proceed cautiously along its rate-hiking path.

Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter also wrote about the jobs numbers in a research note: “Today’s job report is a classic case of ‘nice headlines, shame about the details.’ While we would still give the overall result a passing grade, it’s tough to get overly enthusiastic.”

 


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